Forest’s home scoring drought meets Arsenal’s title defence at the City Ground
Nottingham Forest have produced their best shot and expected-goals rates in five seasons, yet still have not scored at home this campaign. Arsenal’s visit on…
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Nottingham Forest have produced their best shot and expected-goals rates in five seasons, yet still have not scored at home this campaign. Arsenal’s visit on Sunday offers a chance to end that drought—and avoid a third consecutive goalless home meeting between the sides.
Forest have five points from six league games. Their only win came away to Aston Villa, with draws against Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur, and defeats in their last two matches. The Reds are looking for their first home win of the season at the fourth attempt. Goals by Neco Williams against Spurs and Igor Jesus against Coventry City were ruled out by VAR, according to the club’s preview.
The numbers point to a finishing problem rather than a shortage of chances. Forest average 17.7 shots and 1.72 expected goals per league game, both their best figures in the last five seasons. But five goals from 10.3 expected goals leaves them with a league-worst difference of -5.3; they have converted just 4.7% of their shots.
The home fixture has been tight recently: Forest and Arsenal’s last two Premier League meetings at the City Ground both ended 0-0, despite 40 shots between them. Forest have also failed to score in their last four games against the Gunners. Their last win over Arsenal came in 2023, according to Forest’s preview.
Captain Morgan Gibbs-White is a major doubt, manager Oliver Glasner said. His 17 created chances include 15 from open play, while he leads the league for big chances created (seven) and expected assists (1.87). Nikola Milenković is also doubtful; Nicolò Savona and Igor Jesus are out injured.
Arsenal arrive second with 15 points from six league games as they defend the title they won last season, ending a 22-year wait. They have taken 14 wins from their last 17 Premier League matches, nine by a single goal. Mikel Arteta’s side have also shown resilience: after falling behind 1-0 in three of their last four league games, they won two, against Chelsea and Leeds. Their six points from losing positions lead the division. They are still waiting for their first non-penalty set-piece goal in the league.
Arsenal will be without Piero Hincapié, Christos Tzolis, William Saliba, Ben White and Jurriën Timber. Martín Zubimendi is doubtful with a knock. Forest need to turn their chance creation into a first home goal; Arsenal can protect their place near the top. Kick-off is 16:30 BST on Sunday, 18 October.
